Chances for afternoon showers and storms will increase by the middle of this week. Heavy rainfall will bring back a threat of burn scar flash flooding as well.
It’s a relatively quiet start to the week, with a few showers and thunderstorms mainly over northern New Mexico. Temperatures are hot again this afternoon across the state as well. High temperatures from Farmington to the Rio Grande Valley to southern New Mexico are reaching 100°. Showers and storms will be ending late tonight, but clouds will stick around western and northern New Mexico overnight. Temperatures overnight will remain warm as well.
More afternoon storms are on the way to western and northern New Mexico as high pressure moves towards the Four Corners. With the high pressure overhead, it’s going to be another very hot afternoon across the state. Isolated showers may make their way into the Albuquerque Metro late Tuesday evening. A backdoor cold front will move into New Mexico Tuesday night through Wednesday morning, bringing an increase in low-level moisture across the state. This will set the stage for a much more active second half of the week.
Widespread showers and storms will form across nearly all of New Mexico starting Wednesday. Locally heavy rainfall will be possible, especially over northern, south-central, and southwest mountain ranges. Unfortunately, this will also mean an increased threat for burn scar flash flooding. Areas around Ruidoso burn scars and the Hermits Peak/Calf Canyon burn scar should be on high alert starting Wednesday for burn scar flash flooding. Temperatures will also be cooler with the increasing rain chances.
This afternoon pattern will continue into the weekend, with widespread showers and storms. Some of these storms will again be capable of heavy rainfall through early next week.